Fun with Torvik Player Stats for the 2023-24 Friars
Wherein I create a bunch of tables and cohorts to better understand Kim English's first roster
If you haven’t checked out BartTorvik.com, you should – it’s a great complement to KenPom.com, since it includes several useful tools like a real-time projection for next season and, of note for this post, a player stats sorter. I hadn’t spent much time with this latter tool, but I decided to play around with it to glean insights (or maybe just some fun facts) about eight players on the upcoming Friars team.
To start, here are some definitions of stats I’ll be referencing below, in case they’re unfamiliar (why doesn’t Substack support tables? Feel free to skip):
The Studs
Bryce Hopkins: Hopkins was part of an elite club at the major-conference level last year: at least 20% DR, 40% FTR and 20 3-pointers made. Alabama’s Noah Clowney and Kansas’ Kevin McCullar Jr. were the only other major-conference players to achieve that combination, and both were below 30% on 3-pointers, whereas Hopkins was at 36% (and above 40% in conference play). Hopkins also had a much higher usage rate than the other two. Because of the three inches he has on Hopkins, Clowney (who also accomplished this as a freshman) became a first-round pick of the Nets in June. Like Hopkins, McCullar returns to Kansas as one of the best players in a stacked league; and Kansas may enter November as preseason No. 1.
If one eliminates the 3-point requirement and increases the usage requirement to 20%, one gets a different set of comps (Note: Torvik classifies the American as a major conference).
Hopkins fits well among some very good players, but this view also helps to understand where his game may require improvement to reach the All-America standards of a Trayce Jackson-Davis or Oscar Tshiebwe. Of this group below, Hopkins has the worst 2P% and the worst OR. It’s that 47 2P% that kept his ORTG under 110 last season. Finishing better around the rim (and perhaps being fresher while playing fewer minutes) will help. He may also benefit by trading some tough twos for 3-pointers. It’s unclear whether Hopkins has that offensive rebounding knack; without Ed Croswell dominating that glass, we should find out.
Devin Carter: Carter is a singular player who combines three traits in the extreme – blocks, steals and getting to the line. Below is the short list of players across all of college basketball listed at 6-foot-6 and shorter who had a BLK of 3%, STL of 3% and FTR of 30 or better with at least 20 made 3-pointers. Chris Ledlum is set to join Carter in the Big East as a “walk-on” at St. John’s, but Carter is the only person to accomplish this at the high-major level.
If you filter for only major-conference players but reduce the BLK and STL threshold to 2 each, you’ll find an impressive cohort, but, at least by Torvik’s PRPG!, Carter was the best of them last season. And, if you look back another year at major-conference players who achieved this feat in 2021-22, you get Johnny Davis of Wisconsin (a lottery pick) and Ricky Council IV, then of Wichita State, who was a stud at Arkansas last year.
Carter was a good player as a freshman at South Carolina, but he was able to reduce his turnovers as a sophomore in Friartown while making incremental improvements as a shooter from all three levels – that’s how his offensive rating improved from a sketchy 95 to a very good 110. All the while, he maintained his knack for getting to the line and continued being a menace on defense, which is how he went from an intriguing freshman to an all-league-caliber player.
The Transfers
Josh Oduro: Oduro was a beast his last two seasons at George Mason, combining high usage, good rebounding rates and a high FTR to make him one of the most effective interior players in the sport. Therefore, it’s not surprising to see names like Zach Edey, Jackson-Davis and Armando Bacot in his cohort, although those three did it at the high-major rather than mid-major level.
The thing that made Oduro dip on this chart in terms of PRPG! was his TO, which was the highest of anyone on this list. Part of the reason his turnover rate was so high is that he is a very good passer, which means he’s more likely to try to make plays (and sometimes mistakes) distributing the ball – you’ll see that only Jackson-Davis sports a higher assist rate of this group.
In what surely will be a lower usage role this winter (he’s not going to be at 30% while sharing the floor with Hopkins, Carter and others), perhaps the turnovers will be reduced and the ORTG improve. One realistic comp might be Norchad Omier, who (though not the passer Oduro is) struggled with turnovers while sporting super-high usage rates at Arkansas State two seasons ago. After transferring to Miami, his usage dropped, but his TO and ORTG improved without any meaningful reduction in his rebounding or FTR. I worry that Oduro’s athleticism is not what Omier’s is, but I’m optimistic that the same transformation might happen to him, too.
Davonte Gaines: For these next two transfers, we focus two years back at the last healthy season in Gaines’ case and the last productive season in Will McNair’s case. Two years ago, Gaines was arguably the best player in a unique cohort – players 6-foot-9 or shorter that could make 3’s (at least 20), hit the defensive glass (at least a 16% DR) and get to the foul line (at least a 30 FTR) at a low usage (under 17%). This is not a classic “3-and-D” skillset – it’s 3-and-D “Plus,” considering the rebounding and the ability to get to the line.
The most familiar name on the list above is Andre Jackson of UConn, who made 22 3-pointers at a 36% clip two seasons ago – he made more (25) at a lower rate (28%) last season before becoming a second-round pick in the June NBA Draft. Jackson, though, is also not a true 3-and-D because of his excellent passing (though with high turnover rates) and also because he’s not a good volume shooter.
The Slovenian Iowa State forward Aijaz Kunc is perhaps the most similar player to Gaines, serving as a key bench piece on back-to-back Iowa State NCAA Tournament teams after transferring from Washington State. Kunc and Gaines were the only players to make this list each of the last two years, Gaines doing so last season despite being limited by a hand injury.
You’ll notice that, in Gaines’ better season (2021-22), he stands out even within an extreme cohort, since his ORTG and FTR are the best of the group; his 3-pointers made are the most; and his DR is second best. There wasn’t a single player last season to match Gaines’ sub-17% usage with at least 35 3-pointers made and an FTR of at least 50. He is the only player to do that, per Torvik, in the last six seasons (someone named Zach Jackson of Nebraska-Omaha did it in 2016-17). Gaines is a unique player I’m looking forward to watching.
Will McNair Jr.: Last season was something of a lost one for McNair, who followed Chris Jans from New Mexico State to Mississippi State. In the step up in competition from the WAC to the SEC, McNair saw his role reduced (he backed up Tolu Smith) and his offensive game abandon him. He maintained his rebounding on both glasses and his shot-blocking but became a turnover liability and shot just 53% on 2’s, which is poor for someone 6-foot-10.
Above is a dubious list of high-major players 6-foot-10 or taller with 2P% below 54 and TO above 20% who played at least 30% of his team’s minutes last season. There’s good talent here, but it was not effective talent last season.
Two seasons ago, McNair was better, albeit against lesser competition. On a WAC champ that defeated UConn in the 2022 NCAA Tournament’s first round, McNair was a rock at center, finishing in the top 10 in WAC conference play in both OR and BLK. This was the one season of his four in which his TO dipped below 20%, which is part of why it was the only one in which he had an ORTG better than 100.
The effective version of McNair two years ago puts him in a class of low-usage bigs who can block shots and crash the offensive glass. Realist major-conference comps are UConn’s Isaiah Whaley (see above) two years ago and Tennessee’s Jonas Aidoo last year, though McNair is not as elite a shot-blocker.
The “Put Me In, Coach” Squad
Jayden Pierre: In a recent interview with Billy Ricci and Kevin Farrahar on the Friar Podcast, Kim English discussed how he “found [himself] wanting to see [Pierre] more” while watching film of the Friars from last season. To that point, if you look at underclassmen 6-foot-6 or shorter who made at least 10 3-pointers, had an ORTG above 100, had an AST above 20 and a 3PT% above 34% at the major-conference level last year, you get the list below:
On that list are a lottery pick (Wallace), one of the most sought-after transfers (Nembhard, who went to Gonzaga) and two young guards who helped lead their teams to the NCAA Tournament (Taylor IV and Smith). And then there’s Pierre. He did have the lowest usage, highest TO and lowest FTR of anyone on that list, but a young point guard who can pass and shoot is rare, and yet he played just 35 minutes over the team’s last five games and didn’t attempt more than three field goals in any of the team’s last 12 games.
Corey Floyd: If you take that Pierre list, remove the assists factor and limit it to players who played under 40% of team minutes, you get the list below (which also includes Pierre). Floyd was effective last season in limited minutes and at low usage, playing at least 10 minutes in 10 of the Friars’ last 15 games.
There are a lot of “wait-and-see” players here, but if you look at this same list from last year, you’ll find two of the most coveted transfers of the spring: L.J. Cryer (Baylor to Houston) and Khalif Battle (Temple to Arkansas). Cryer doubled his minutes between his sophomore and junior seasons at Baylor and saw little decline in his efficiency, knocking down 80 3-pointers on 42% shooting. The oft-injured Battle, in his fourth season of college basketball, was an elite scorer at a high usage.
Due to him being a volume scorer, I don’t like Battle as a Floyd comp, but Cryer is intriguing since he played sparingly as a freshman on Baylor’s national title team and was an impact scorer last season at a modest 20% usage. Floyd’s defensive profile is superior to Cryer’s, and English has called him an elite shooter, which is what Cryer is at the college level.
Rafael Castro: I’ve been buying up property on Slim Island since April, the plot’s value is highly volatile. If you look at KenPom’s player comps, which take similar profiles based on age, size and performance over the last 15 years, the names are actually really good, which is to say, “people I’ve heard of.” Typically, players who barely play are compared to super obscure guys, but Castro has the following names among his 10 comps:
Luke Fischer: transferred from Indiana to Marquette where he was an above-average Big East center
Christian Koloko: made the NBA after three seasons at Arizona; won Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year, Most Improved Player and made first-team all-league as a junior
Amir Williams: was an adequate Big Ten center for his last three years at Ohio State on teams that made the NCAA Tournament each March
Jesse Edwards: was a two-year starter at Syracuse and coveted transfer this offseason (landed at West Virginia)
These are four of Castro’s top seven comps, and trust me when I say – I’ve spent a lot of time looking at KenPom comps, and this list is miles better than many players who were much more impactful on the court than Castro was last season. That said, all of those guys, except Edwards, made an impact as a sophomore, which means this is a big season for Castro.
If you filter for all major-conference players last season who, like Castro, had an ORTG better than 100, BLK better than 6%, STL better than 2% and were freshman or sophomores, you get the list below, which includes a lottery pick in this year’s NBA Draft, and Castro from a PRPG! and box plus/minus (BPM) perspective, is right in the middle of this group.
If you look at the same list for the previous year, you get three first-round picks from the 2022 Draft (Murray, Eason and Kessler) out of seven names.
Now, those players played a lot more minutes than Castro did and many of Castro’s minutes were clumped against inferior teams. Still, a big with the activity level of Castro and a competent offensive rating is rare and worth keeping an eye on.