The 25 teams most likely to win the NCAA Tournament (in order)

Do you ever walk away from the AP Top 25 feeling unsatisfied? For me, the unsatisfying part of the AP poll (even more than the fact that many voters don’t follow college basketball) is that the ranking doesn’t signify anything. Not only does it have no impact on, say, NCAA Tournament seeding or selection, but it’s not clear on what basis teams are ranked. In so much as any voter has a philosophy, that philosophy is an inconsistent combination of who “deserves” to be where based on recent results, who has the best “body of work” and (in a few rare cases) valuing the advanced metrics as a balance against the binary of wins and losses.

Regardless of the principles, there are no stakes to the poll for the voters, especially now that Gary Parrish’s amusing but unnecessary Poll Attacks column no longer exists (the main result of that column was to force groupthink among voters to avoid being pilloried). By contrast, the ranking exercise in this post is intended to achieve two purposes: (1) identify the teams most likely to win the national title; (2) put my money where my rankings are.

I’ve done this exercise during a couple of seasons with friends (including last year), but here’s how it works:

• Rank your top 25 in order of likelihood of winning the national title

• Do this regularly throughout the season (this year, we’ll do this every other week during November and December and every week starting in January through Selection Sunday)

• Add up how many points you gave each team across the season (e.g., if you voted a team first the first week of the season and all 15 subsequent rankings, that team would get 400 of your points, 25 points for each first-place vote)

• Find some other friends (aka “sickos”) to do the same thing

• After the last poll the day after Selection Sunday, each person participating has a bucket of teams that they “get” for the NCAA Tournament; these are the teams that he or she gave the post points to across the season

• Whichever participant has the team that wins the national title wins the whole pot

Last season, my friend and I started this on the first Monday of January, and here is how the points looked after our last ranking (the teams below are ranked in order of total points earned across all polls):

As you can see, my friend had UConn, and so he was the winner of this competition. He had most of the regional finalists, but I ended up with a puncher’s chance on San Diego State in the title game.

Thinking about teams based on likelihood of winning the title does two things: (1) you’re less likely to overreact to a result or two as opposed to the team’s underlying talent/quality mixed with performance; (2) you’re less likely to “throw a bone” at teams just because they’re a nice story (I’m looking at you, College of Charleston voters). This exercise should lead to more realism in rankings since there are real stakes.

One more thing about this exercise is that the top teams are the top teams – the first handful is basically in order of how good I think each team is. But the bottom half of the top 25 mixes my perceptions of team quality with the track record of the coach and, perhaps most importantly, my perception of the ceiling of that team. To win the national title entering the season as, say, the 20th-ranked team means that you need to have some serious upside. So, this is not my ranking of the 25 best teams in order but the 25 teams that mix a high ceiling with a likelihood of reaching it.

Anyway, enough with the throat-clearing: below is my first ranking of the 2023-24 season of the 25 teams most likely to win the national title. I’ve cajoled two friends to join me in this exercise this season and I’ll be posting our picks each week so you can follow along. File your grievances in the comments. 

1. Kansas

2. Purdue

3. Duke

Most of the public debate on the best team entering the season focuses on these three teams, and for now, I agree. I am going with Kansas first based on both roster experience and the coaching track record despite questionable depth. Bill Self has two titles, and neither Matt Painter nor Jon Scheyer has a Final Four on his resume. On the other hand, a coach is the “best coach to never make the Final Four (or win a title)” until he isn’t, and that was true of Self at one time as it was Tony Bennett before he won it all in 2019, and I think Painter has the squad to do it this season. The freshmen guards were good last year and are now sophomores. There’s more shooting around Edey, and Edey is still dominant. Duke comes in third, despite possessing the most overall talent, since they are being asked to make a larger jump from last year’s performance and have a very inexperienced coach.

4. Connecticut

5. Houston

6. Michigan State

UConn comes next due to overall talent and the quality of a coaching staff that was so impressive last season. In my opinion, the Huskies have the most variance of my top 12 due to the projection on Clingan and due to relying on freshmen, but variance is a good thing when all you’re trying to do is pick a national champion. Houston is a bet on talent, defense and a coach that is likely to break through eventually. Michigan State has a proven winner in March as its coach and, for the first time since Cassius Winston graduated, a roster to match.

7. Creighton

8. Arizona

9. Marquette

10. Tennessee

I’m breaking off the third tier after 10, since I think every other team below has more questions than the teams above. Putting Creighton first in this group is a bet on them getting to March with their top four (Ryan Kalkbrenner, Trey Alexander, Baylor Scheierman and Steven Ashworth)  healthy. If Tommy Lloyd can figure out how to make Caleb Love fit with his other pieces, this team has the ceiling to be the best offense in the country. Marquette is the returning double Big East champ, and Tennessee has consistently fallen short of expectations in March but may eventually break through.

11. Baylor

12. Gonzaga

13. Texas

This mini-tier includes two proven coaches, though only one that’s won a national title. Baylor’s overall talent, especially on offense, is questionable, and they’re trying to bounce back from a poor defensive season, but Scott Drew’s track record is hard to question. Gonzaga is very good every year, and like Houston, seems bound to break through one year, even if they’re relying on a couple of transfers – Graham Ike and Ryan Nembhard – that I find to be a bit overrated. Texas has the most talent of these three but also has a couple of injuries – namely, Kadin Shedrick and Dylan Disu – in the frontcourt and questions at head coach.

14. USC

15. Villanova

These are a pair of speculative upside plays. USC brings in a top recruiting class, led by Isaiah Collier, but Andy Enfield doesn’t strike fear in March. Villanova has a roster that would be in the top 10 in a Jay Wright regime, so this is a bet that maybe Kyle Neptune is a good coach who simply needed a year to adjust and was in a bad situation last season with an injured star and a freshman who just didn’t fit. There are several teams behind these two whom I would bet have a higher floor and median outcome than USC or Villanova.

16. Auburn

17. Arkansas

18. Alabama

This is the SEC “shrug” section of my rankings. There’s plenty to like in all three squads, and each coach has shown the ability to make runs in March. I like Auburn’s best players the most and Musselman’s March track record next best.

19. North Carolina

20. Florida Atlantic

21. Kentucky

This is the “one of these things is not like the other” section. North Carolina and Kentucky both have blue in their blood: Kentucky’s squad is younger and with more 5-star equity; North Carolina has two outstanding veterans (R.J. Davis and Armando Bacot), a bunch of interesting transfers and a wunderkind point guard (to his credit, Elliot Cadeau was alive, barely, when the Red Sox broke the curse). Sandwiched between them is last year’s darlings, FAU, with a coach in Dusty May who was as impressive as can be last season. The Owls bring most of their key pieces back (Alijah Martin and Johnell Davis could have All-American cases), but remember that they were just 26th in KenPom entering the NCAA Tournament.

22. Virginia

23. Texas A&M

24. San Diego State

25. Miami

These are the shots in the dark. Why not pick two of the unlikely Final Four teams last year – San Diego State and Miami – who need to replace several pieces but have established a track record for March success (particularly for the Hurricanes, who have made it to at least the Elite Eight in each of the last two seasons)? Virginia is a bet on the coach as well as some breakout candidates (Isaac McNeely, Reece Beekman, Ryan Dunn) despite the losses of Shedrick and Kihei Clark. Texas A&M is the most common choice to finish second in the SEC and has a coach in Buzz Williams who has been to four Sweet 16s and a regional final (shoutout to Davante Gardner).