Big East Roster Analysis: Connecticut Huskies
This is not a team-by-team preview series for the Providence Friars’ 10 Big East rivals, though it’s not far off. What it is intended to be is a look at how each of the 10 rosters is put together for the coming season. There are a lot of new faces and I spent a lot of time trying to figure out what each piece brings and how it fits together. I’m sure I’ll be wrong often, but I walk away feeling more informed, and I’m hoping you will, too.
Connecticut Huskies (see below)
In one sense, it’s hard to argue with this:
But the vibes that that Tweet conveys were more akin to how I felt entering last season. I had UConn in my top three preseason, higher than consensus due to (1) what Dan Hurley and his staff had shown in the previous season’s title run and (2) what UConn was returning, which included Donovan Clingan and Tristen Newton along with incoming transfer Cam Spencer.
Looking at this season’s roster, I have a lot more questions. I could argue that the best UConn player this coming season — perhaps Alex Karaban — would not have been one of the team’s three best players on last season’s champions (and that’s from someone — me — who expects Karaban to play his way into a late first-round pick for the 2025 NBA Draft). Karaban himself, as well as Hassan Diarra, will be stepping into larger roles that should affect their efficiency, and I have more concerns about the impact of transfers Aidan Mahaney and Tarris Reed than I did last season’s key transfer, Spencer. Beyond them, UConn has a half-dozen very talented freshmen and sophomores with a lot of promise but limited college experience.
Immediately above, of course, is closer to the other extreme from the X post screenshotted at the top of this post. I do think this roster has a ton of upside, particularly due to the depth of talent 1 through 11 and the nation’s best coaching staff. The difference between where I sit on UConn and where it seems popular consensus resides, particularly after Karaban decided to return and Hurley merely flirted with the Lakers, is the difference between, say, “clear Big East favorite / inner-circle national title contender” and among the Big East favorites / clearly outside the national title contender inner circle.
Both Karaban (17% usage) and Diarra (18%) flourished in lower-usage roles last year and are sure to carry larger loads this year (particularly Karaban). Both of them were overqualified for the roles they played last season, but a jump to usage in the 22-25% range means lower efficiency (Diarra is a better player now than he was at Texas A&M, but the efficiency numbers with 22-24% usage in College Station were ugly). Samson Johnson is a solid role player but limited due to his penchant for getting pushed around on the defense glass and not being an offensive threat besides rolls and putbacks. As mentioned, I’m not as high as others on Reed, the Michigan transfer center. Along with him being an inefficient turnover machine in his first two college seasons, he was a core part of a Wolverines defense that was in the bottom quartile nationally last season for both number of attempts allowed at the rim and opponent percentage on those attempts. That isn’t all Reed’s fault, but he should take some of the blame and is many steps down from Clingan in terms of impact at both ends.
This is Reed’s comparison set based on the things he does well (rebounding on both glasses, blocked shots, getting to the line) and the things he does poorly (passing, turnovers). It’s fine, but it doesn’t stand out:
Mahaney slots into the Spencer spot, and he is a very good shooter but was highly inefficient inside the arc (just 46% on close 2’s) and is a clear downgrade from Spencer as a passer and defender. I’m most bullish on the freshman Liam McNeeley, who profiles as a great shooter but one who also has a good floor game due to being a solid passer and rebounder, which means he should fit in well with UConn’s ball and player movement offense.
Though I’ve panned the starting lineup, Karaban and McNeeley may be the best forward combo in the league, and this is a very deep team with a ton of shooting. Replacing Castle’s minutes with McNeeley should mean better spacing. The Huskies also have the deepest roster of elite talent in the league, including 11 players who figure to be good enough to contribute to a good team this year. Freshmen Ahmad Nowell and Isaiah Abraham as well as sophomores Jaylin Stewart, Solo Ball and Jayden Ross should push for minutes, allowing UConn to come at opponents in waves.
Nowell is a powerful guard at 6-foot-2, who is known for his defense and toughness but who still can knock down the open shot. Abraham is an athletic forward, similarly known for his bulldog mentality and who can shine early defensively and in the open floor. Ball and Stewart were both top-75 recruits in the 2023 class who would have played a lot more last season on any other team in the country. If UConn does end up being one of the top five teams in the country, it’ll be because a couple of these players turn into above-average Big East-caliber starters that push Mahaney and Diarra, in particular, for playing time.
Betting against Hurley and his staff after what it has done over the last two seasons may be foolish, particularly since his coaching ability is now undeniable and he’s created a culture that enables him to handpick the pieces he wants. However, I just think this roster comes up well short of the last two. Obviously, UConn lost Clingan, Castle and Spencer, but it’s Newton’s loss that is being most underestimated. The big point guard took on a huge amount of the offensive load last season but still maintained good efficiency (including a low turnover rate, something Diarra has typically struggled with), and by willing to have the offense run through him, it enabled UConn to have the two best role players in the sport in Spencer and Karaban, performing at extreme efficiency. Without Newton or someone like him on this team, on offense, you end up with a bunch of guys taking on a larger role than they ideally would for a title contender. And, defensively, Clingan and Castle were elite defenders at their positions last year, and their replacements (Reed and McNeeley) don’t profile at that level.
If Hurley can get this team to the Final Four, it would be as good a coaching job as winning the title last season.
Great stuff